On a six-game win streak the Oakland Athletics pose the biggest threat to the Boston Red Sox in the American League. Oakland began as an afterthought in the AL West with Houston and Seattle barrelling over the rest of the division, but around the All-Star Break they jumped forward into the picture and they made two big moves at and after the deadline that put them ahead of the curve. A’s general manager, David Frost, said, “We’ve been looking for starters, so we were lucky that Mike (Fiers) was available to us.” A partner to Sean Manaea in the starting rotation easily sets Oakland above Seattle who has little depth at the starter role. Fiers is 1-1 since the All-Star Break with a 1.91 Earned Run Average including a win over Boston. The Mariner’s ace, James Paxton, who is 1-2 since the All-Star Break (including a loss to the Angels where he never finished the first inning) with a 3.80 ERA. The Mariners have also fallen greatly, not only from being second in the West, but from being a Wild Card team. Sean Manaea has faced the Red Sox twice this year and defeated them on both occasions, the first of which was a no-hitter. He also has the ninth best ERA in the AL for the season at 3.38. In addition to that his 1.01 Average of Walks and Hits per Innings Pitched is fifth in the AL and eighth in all of baseball. However, every pitcher with the exception of Brett Anderson and Manaea in the Oakland rotation and every pitcher in the Athletics’ bullpen but Ryan Buchter is a right-handed pitcher which puts Oakland at a disadvantage: Boston hits only one home run every 24 at-bats versus right-handers, but they hit one home run every thirty-five at-bats versus southpaws. Boston also strikes out once every five at-bats versus righties and once every four at-bats versus left-handers. The Sox also hit .273 with an .812 OPS versus righties, while batting a mere .257 with a .737 OPS versus lefties. That being said, even without Mike Fiers and Jeurys Familia, Oakland is 4-2 against Boston, three of those victories being over the first three pitchers in the Red Sox’ rotation (1. Chris Sale, 2. David Price, and 3. Rick Porcello). Unfortunately for Oakland, Boston recently traded prospect Jalen Beeks to the Tampa Bay Rays for now 5-4 Nathan Eovaldi, who threw six no-hit innings in a combined one-hit shutout over the A’s in their only meeting this season on May 30. If the season ended today, the A’s would have to win the Wild Card Game over the New York Yankees, who are 6-8 since the All-Star Break. The Yankees hit one home run every 23 at-bats, they strikeout once every four at-bats, hit .251, and have a .761 OPS versus righties, while hitting one home run every 18 at-bats, they strikeout once every four at-bats, hit .261, and have an .836 OPS versus lefties. That being said, who knows if Aaron Judge or Gary Sanchez, two of their best home run hitters, will be back by the Wild Card Game? Also, Luis Severino has by far the best ERA on the team, and that’s 3.08! That’s not too exciting for the Bronx when they have a losing record in the second half. With these facts in mind, it looks pretty clear that Oakland would move on to play Boston in the ALDS. How do we know Oakland won’t overcome their 4.5 game deficit to the Astros? The defending World Series Champions have a far, far tougher schedule with two against the Colorado Rockies, three in Seattle, three at Fenway Park in Boston, and three against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Those are four tough serieses against four tough competitors. Oakland, on the other hand, has only three even slightly difficult serieses: they have two games at home against the struggling Los Angeles Dodgers, they’re playing three games in Seattle, and their last difficult matchup is at home against the falling Yankees. Houston and Oakland do end up playing one another in two three-game sets to finish the month of August, but they each get three home games from the six game scrum. Since just before the break, Oakland is 3-1 versus Houston. Furthermore, the Astros hit one home run per every 27 batters, strikeout once every four batters, hit .250, and have a .745 OPS versus right-handers, while they hit a home run once every 26 batters, strikeout once every five batters, hit .271, and have an OPS of .791 versus lefties, showing another advantage for the predominantly right-handed Athletics pitching staff. Houston has also struggled since the break going only 8-8 compared to Oakland’s sweet 8-4 second half. The Astros are 2-2 versus Boston, showing that they are not quite as good as the green and gold when it comes to blasting bombs over the Green Monster. The threat from the Central, the Cleveland Indians (who are 2-4 versus Oakland), though they have not played the Red Sox this year, against the other top four teams in the American League (Astros, Yankees, A’s, and Mariners, respectively) are 10-19. The Mariners are 3-4 versus Boston and they’re falling apart. The Yankees are 5-9 versus Boston and the Sox completed a four game sweep of New York Sunday night. The Astros are only .500 versus Boston, Cleveland is projected to do incredibly poorly against them, Seattle is .375 against the Red Sox, New York has a .357 winning percentage (and has been especially terrible) against Boston of late, but the Athletics have .667 winning percentage against them all year (with a no-hitter). This is not to say that Oakland will definitely beat the Red Sox, this is just to say that they have the best chance. Of all 14 other teams in the American League, Oakland is the best suited to take on Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, and Chris Sale. Granted, throughout his career, Cleveland and Houston batters hit Sale better than Oakland, this season Cleveland has hit only one home run every 28 at-bats, strikes out once every five at-bats, with a mere .271 batting average, and a .779 OPS versus lefties. Sale, a lefty, is arguably the best pitcher in baseball, so against him, assuming he starts during the three game series in Boston, the Indians’ stats this year against lefties will most likely falter. Finally, Boston has a rather split rotation as they have three lefties (no matter if it’s the current situation with Sale on the 10-Day Disabled List and Brian Johnson in or the norm with Sale starting and Johnson in the bullpen) and two righties starting. When Sale is healthy that means that Johnson is working out of the pen, however that’s the only time they have a left-handed pitcher ready in relief. Oakland hits one home run every 25 at-bats, they strikeout once every four at-bats, they bat .251, and have a .758 OPS versus right-handers, and they hit one home run every 27 at-bats, they strikeout once every four at-bats, they hit .244, and they have a .737 OPS against left-handers. The A’s hit righties very well and that will most likely force Boston’s southpaw starters to go longer innings if they want to have lefties to spare if and when these two teams end up meeting in a five or seven-game series. It’s important to note that while every team will have 15 more players on their roster come September 1st for the 40-man roster, seven or eight of whom will most likely be pitchers, teams will still have to focus on saving arms from both the left and right sides. The postseason is when most teams decide that if their starter can go seven, eight, or even nine innings (10 if you’re now Hall of Famer Jack Morris), then they will probably have to be out there that long so if the starter the next day can’t make it through the fourth, they’re not using arms running on fumes to try to win that one. While Oakland’s hitting might not seem too outstanding, their pitching, especially against Boston is. Oakland has only allowed 3.67 runs per game against Boston, Houston has allowed 4.75 runs per game against Boston, Cleveland has allowed 5.03 runs per game against the four teams closest to Boston in record (Houston, New York, Oakland, and Seattle, respectively), Seattle has allowed the Red Sox to score 5.43 runs per game, and the Yankees have allowed an incredible 5.79 runs per game to Boston. Out of the five teams in the best position to have a shot at playing Boston in the postseason (Houston, New York, Oakland, Seattle, and Cleveland) the Athletics have by far the best pitching to fend off Boston’s hitting, and as any coach, player, broadcaster, fan, or… writer, will tell you: Great pitching beats great hitting. Jesse A. Cook “Oakland Is Boston’s Biggest Threat” August 7, 2018
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