The Boston Red Sox third baseman, Rafael Devers, is close to accomplishing the almost unheard of feat of hitting sixty doubles in a single season. Despite this unprecedented milestone, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim center fielder, Mike Trout, remains the favorite for the Most Valuable Player award in the American League.
As is, the 22-year old Domican Republic native has 48 doubles with 28 games remaining in the season. That means that he has hit 48 doubles over the span of 134 games. That is not entirely true, however, because he has only played 129 of those 134 games. That means that he doubles once every 2.688 games. Charlie Gehringer, Paul Waner, Hank Greenberg, Joe Medwick, George H. Burns, and Earl Webb are the only players in baseball history to record 60 or more doubles in a season. Gehringer hit 60 doubles for his 1936 Detroit Tigers, Waner hit 62 for the 1932 Pittsburgh Pirates, Greenberg hit 63 for the 1934 Tigers, Medwick hit 64 for the 1936 St. Louis Cardinals, Burns hit 64 for his Cleveland Indians in 1926, and Webb hit 67 for the Red Sox in 1931. Four of those six players are in the National Baseball Hall of Fame (Gehringer, Waner, Greenberg, and Medwick). No one has hit 60 doubles or more in 83 years. Devers, if he continues at his pace of hitting one double every 2.688 games, and he plays every one of those 28 games, should mathematically hit roughly 10.5 more doubles, ending the year with 58.5 doubles. Now, he cannot hit half of a double, so lets round that down to 58 to really put his back against the wall. That, clearly, does not get him to the fevered milestone, but that calculation also does not take into account that he has a hot bat, lately. In the first half of the season, he hit 25 doubles. In the second half, he has recorded 23 doubles (“First Half” meaning “Before the All-Star Game” and “Second Half” meaning “After the All-Star Game”). The first half lasted 91 games, while the second half has thus far lasted 43 games. This means that Devers doubled once every 3.64 games in the first half, but he has doubled once every 1.87 games in the second half. If he continues at his second half rate, he should mathematically double roughly 15 more times. This would lead him to finish the season with roughly 63 doubles. The last player to hit even 50 doubles in a season was José Ramirez with his current team, the Indians, in 2017. He finished third in M.V.P. voting with a league-leading 56 doubles. This leads us to the question: “Why did Ramirez not win first in the M.V.P. voting?” That year, José Altuve of the Houston Astros and then-rookie Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees finished ahead of him in the M.V.P. voting in first and second, respectively. Judge hit 52 home runs, batted .284, produced 154 hits, and drove in 114 runs, and Altuve hit 24 home runs, batted .346, produced 204 hits, and drove in 81 runs. Ramirez only hit 29 home runs, batted .318, produced 186 hits, and drove in 83 runs, making him a roughly inconsequential player in the midst of Altuve and Judge. This season, Trout has hit 43 home runs, batted .293, produced 131 hits, and driven in 100 runs. Devers has astonishingly hit 28 home runs, batted .326, produced a league-leading 174 hits, and driven in 104 runs. Devers has the clear advantage over Trout; despite hitting fewer home runs, he still has driven in more runs. Trout, being a home run hitter, is expected to have a sub-.300 batting average and is hitting accordingly, though .293 is still very good. Devers is exceeding the norm for non-home run hitters. He is not known for his home runs, he is known for his ability to get on base, but despite this, the Boston third baseman will almost assuredly finish with at least 30 home runs this season. Trout is behind Devers in everything vitally important to M.V.P. consideration except for three things:
Homers always make a difference, but considering that Devers will likely end up with decent home run numbers of his own, this is somewhat trivial. W.A.R. is an important statistic because it is designed to determine how valuable a player is to his team or how much the team needs a player to win. While this sounds like the only stat that should even matter, W.A.R. can vary due to how good or bad a player’s team is. Devers’ team’s lineup is padded with the bats of the reigning M.V.P. (Mookie Betts), the only player to win two Silver Slugger Awards in one year (J.D. Martinez), an all-star shortstop (Xander Bogaerts), and a Rookie of the Year contender (Michael Chavis). Trout’s team’s lineup has the reigning Rookie of the Year (Shohei Ohtani), a severely aged formerly great first baseman (Albert Pujols), and a perpetually injured former M.V.P. candidate (Andrelton Simmons). Trout clearly has less to work with and is therefore more valuable to the Angels than Devers is to the Red Sox. This does not mean that Trout is better overall, though. Another disqualifying factor of W.A.R. is that not even statisticians fully understand it and there is no simple way to calculate it. Third of the aforementioned advantages for Trout is that he was an all-star and Devers was not. This is not a death-sentence for Devers’ M.V.P. hopes, though, as there have been 11 M.V.P. Award winners who were not all-stars, including Hall of Fame members Greenberg, Robin Yount, Willie Stargell, and Chipper Jones. All this means is that Devers either had a poor first half or that he went so underappreciated that he was not worthy of a spot on the American League roster. Whichever reason it is that his 16 home runs, .324 batting average, 112 hits, and 62 R.B.I.s in 346 at-bats did not earn him that honor is irrelevant now because his second half has been what makes him an M.V.P. contender. Since the All-Star Game in Cleveland, Ohio at Progressive Field back on Tuesday, July 9, 2019, Devers has hit 12 home runs, batted .332, produced 62 hits, and driven in 42 runs in 187 at-bats. Pre-All Star Game, he hit a home run once every 21.625 at-bats and drove in a run once every 5.581 at-bats. Second half, that changed to a home run once every 15.583 at-bats and a run batted in once every 14.452 at-bats, two vast improvements. Trout’s first half stats read as 28 home runs, a .301 batting average, 91 hits, and 67 R.B.I.s in 302 at-bats. A home run every 10.786 at-bats and an R.B.I. once every 4.507 at-bats. His second half stats read as 15 home runs, a .276 batting average, 40 hits, and 33 R.B.I.s in 145 at-bats. One home run once every 9.667 at-bats and an R.B.I. once every 4.394 at-bats. Trout has had a more consistent season as far as home runs and R.B.I.s and he hits them more often than Devers. However, while these are important, Devers is not a home run hitter primarily (home run hitters generally drive in more runs). He is specialized in getting on base and has fantastic hit numbers and batting average numbers that have surpassed Trout all year. The fact that he has even relatively close home run and R.B.I. totals and averages to Trout alongside his incredible ability to reach base set him up as a better player than Trout this season. Jesse A. Cook “Devers Approaches 60 Doubles, Trout Remains M.V.P. Favorite” 29 August 2019
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AuthorJesse Cook: High school junior. Does play-by-play for the Sharon Varsity Eagles softball, soccer, volleyball, basketball, and football teams. Fanatic of the Boston and Cincinnati teams in the Big Four sports. Designs graphics of athletes, politicians, and musicians at Picsart.com. Archives
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